Elections in JK UT after abrogation of Article 370 and Bifurcation of J&K State

Legislative Assembly Elections in JK UT are declared almost after a decade and it will end the six year political impasse. Last assembly elections were conducted in 2015 but the assembly was dissolved on November 21st 2018 by Governor Satya Pal Malik. 2024 Assembly elections for J&K will be conducted in three phases . Phase 1 is scheduled on 18th September 2024, phase 2 will be held on 25th September 2024 and phase 3 will be conducted on 1st October 2024. Assembly elections are conducted after almost a decade but there were DDC(District Development Council) elections conducted in 2020. DDC elections never happened in the history of J&K state. Because of Article 370 and 35A Panchayati Raj Act of Indian constitution mandates three-tier system of Panchayati Raj for all states having a population of over two million but J&K state never had full implementation of Panchayati Raj.

DDC Elections

The first DDC elections in the history of Jammu and Kashmir were held from 28 November 2020 in eight phases across the two-hundred and eighty DDC constituencies. People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) won 110 seats while BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 75 seats. People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) won 110 seats while BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 75 seats. But later on 19 January, the JKPC left the PAGD, which brought down the PAGD’s seat tally from 110 to 102, as JKPC had won 8 seats.

Article 370 , J&K Reorganization Bill and Supreme Court Verdict

After the abrogation of article 370, government of India under the able leadership of Narendra Modi ensured that the local body elections were conducted in the newly formed UT. J&K Reorganization Bill has carved out a Union Territory of Ladakh from J&K state and changing the status of the remaining part of the state to JK UT.

Article 370 was challenged in Supreme Court of India and on 11th December 2023 SC delivered a landmark judgement. Supreme Court in a unanimous 5-0 decision, upheld the abrogation of Article 370 by the central government on 5th August 2019. This ruling validated the constitutional validity of the Presidential orders CO 272 and 273, which effectively applied the entire Constitution of India to jammu and Kashmir and declared all provisions of Article 370 inoperative.

Supreme Court of India said that Article 370 was always intended as a temporary provision, aimed at facilitating the integration of J&K into India. The judgement clarifies that the president of India could abrogate Article 370 without the recommendation of the Constituent Assembly of J&K especially since the Constituent Assembly had been dissolved. The court noted that the President’s power under Article 370(3) allowed for such a move , particularly under the circumstances where the state was under President’s rule. Supreme court mentioned about Statehood restoration with directives for elections to be held in a specified timeline. SC judgement was celebrated by some as reinforcing the sovereignty and integrity of India and others debated the implications for federalism and state autonomy. The abrogation has led to the application of the central laws more uniformly in J&K potentially enhancing governance, accountability, and integration with rest of India.

This judgment not only settled the legal debate over Article 370 but also had significant political and social ramifications, aiming to further integrate Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian union while promising to address governance and autonomy issues through future political processes like elections and possibly a truth commission.

Unrealistic Promises by Political Parties

Political parties of the Kashmir Division are back to play dirty politics and looking at their manifesto it looks like they want to again push Kashmir into era of stole-pelting , mayhem and lawlessness.

The National Conference (NC) in Jammu and Kashmir released its manifesto for the 2024 assembly. NC has pledged to restore the special status of Jammu and Kashmir by bringing back Article 370 and 35A, which were abrogated in 2019. This includes efforts to redraw the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019. The party aims to restore the statehood of Jammu and Kashmir, which was downgraded to a Union Territory following the abrogation of Article 370. NC promises the release of political prisoners, indicating a move towards reconciliation and addressing past grievances. Promises include providing 12 gas cylinders to the Economically Weaker Section (EWS), free travel for women in public transport, and enhancing marriage assistance. Free education up to the university level and an increase in medical allowances for pensioners. The manifesto touches on issues like renaming certain landmarks to reflect historical names that align more with local cultural sentiments rather than Hindu heritage, indicating a focus on cultural identity. NC wants to repeal of the Public Safety Act (PSA). The manifesto reflects a strong push towards greater autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir, aligning with the historical stance of NC on state rights. NC manifesto is unrealistic and divisive, especially regarding the timeline and feasibility of restoring Article 370. The political discourse in the upcoming elections with focusing heavily on Article 370, autonomy/self-rule and polarization.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Kashmir released its manifesto for the 2024 Assembly elections with a strong emphasis on restoring Article 370 and 35A. PDP called abrogation of Article 370 and 35A “unconstitutional and illegal” despite Supreme court ruling upholding it and calling it constitutional. PDP also wants to restore Statehood of J&K. PDP advocates for renewed dialogue between India and Pakistan, aiming for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue. This includes establishing full connectivity across the Line of Control (LoC) for trade and social exchange, and promoting a regional free-trade area. The manifesto promises to strive for the revocation of several acts including the Public Safety Act (PSA), Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), Enemy Property Act, and the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), aiming to reduce the sense of oppression and enhance civil liberties.

Congress has promised to immediately restore full statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, reversing the changes made in 2019 where the state was bifurcated into two Union Territories. The manifesto commits to conducting a nationwide socio-economic and caste census coupled with a promise to pass a constitutional amendment to raise the Supreme Court mandated 50% cap on reservations for Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), and Other Backward Classes (OBC). Congress has proposed a direct benefit transfer scheme named ‘Mahalakshmi’, promising Rs 1 lakh per year to every poor Indian family, with the amount directly transferred to the bank account of the oldest woman in the household. The manifesto includes a commitment to enact a law on bail that incorporates the principle that ‘bail is the rule, jail is the exception’ in all criminal laws, suggesting a move towards more humane judicial practices. There’s a promise to legally guarantee Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for farmers, aligning with the recommendations of the Swaminathan Commission, aiming to protect agricultural income. Congress plans to adopt the Rajasthan model of cashless insurance for universal healthcare, promising up to Rs 25 lakh insurance coverage. Additionally, educational reforms include making NEET optional for states, aiming to provide more flexibility in educational policies. To curb political defections, Congress proposes an amendment to make defection an automatic disqualification from membership in the Assembly or Parliament. The manifesto also touches on recognizing civil unions between couples belonging to the LGBTQIA+ community, indicating a step towards greater inclusivity. Congress aims to scrap the Agnipath military recruitment scheme, returning to traditional recruitment processes to ensure economic and social security for soldiers. These points reflect Congress’s strategy to address both immediate governance issues in Kashmir, like statehood, and broader national policies that could impact the region’s socio-economic fabric, aiming for inclusivity, welfare, and political stability.

The Apni Party also wants to restore statehood of J&K and advocates for constitutional guarantees to preserve the cultural and social identity of the region , similar to provisions like Article 371 for some north-eastern states.

Most of the other Kashmir parties like J&K Awami Ittehad Party, Peoples Conference, are expected to toe the same line as PDP and NC. Banned Jamaat-e-Islami is supporting independent candidates , which historically has boycotted polls in J&K.

Congress party is the only National party which has a pre-poll alliance with NC who wants to bring back article 370. In short Congress is indirectly supporting those who are not supporting the national interest and are inciting the common people of Kashmir. Congress has come up with its 1 lakh per annum scheme for the eldest women of the economically backward families despite huge failure in Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh. Free gas Cylinders, Electricity units , Bus rides and other socialist schemes are unrealistic doll outs which will be a huge burden for the next government. NC wants to change the names of Shankaracharya Hill to Takht-ae-Suleiman, Hari Parbat to Koh-ae-maran and historic places like Anantnag to Islamabad but Congress party is supporting NC in this anti-Hindu renaming spree. Congress is also seen to push for its national issues in the UT elections which has no relations to the present elections.

Most of the political parties based in Kashmir has made unrealistic promises which are not going to help the residents of J&K. Article 370 is gone for good and lot of people are happy that J&K has gone past this roadblock. Abrogation of article 370 has not only integrated the region with mainland India but has brought in peace and prosperity in the Kashmir Valley. Pakistan sponsored terrorism has tried to disrupt the peace process by various attacks in the Jammu Division , attacking Hindu Pilgrims , Army convoys , civilians etc. Most possibly these terrorist attacks are the reason behind the announcement of elections supported by the SC mandated elections in a stipulated time period.

BJP is going out to voters with achievements like with abrogation of Article 370/35A, AIIMS/IIT, Widening of Highway projects, Ring Road, Akhnoor Road Flyover, Railway infrastructure achievements, Tunnels , reduction in terrorism ,implementation of center government welfare schemes, Domicile for the West Pakistani refugees after 70 years, Domicile for 1971 refugees , Equal Rights for Women and Valmiki Samaj etc. BJP model of good governance, infrastructure development , security are the prime offerings across the country. BJP has promised to carry forward the good work which they have done till now. BJP has done a combing operation in J&K govt offices and dismissed many government employees who were ISI agents. BJP completed successful implementation of the delimitation commission and has increased the seats of Jammu from 37 to 43. BJP gave reservation to Kashmiri Pandits and ST category candidates in the assembly elections. BJP gave ST reservation to many tribes of J&K.

Separatist outfits like Hurriyat are trampled by the BJP government that even they won’t be in a position to call for a boycott as they use to in the past. Undoubtedly BJP has helped bring in normalcy in Kashmir Valley by crushing the separatist and fifth column forces in Kashmir Valley. Terrorism is at record low today in Kashmir Valley. There are attempts to disturb historically peaceful Jammu province in the last few months but looking at the track record of the incumbent govt. they must be working on it.

Cost of Freebie Politics

Congress promised welfare guarantees in Karnataka are estimated to cost 62000 Crore annually which is 20% of the state budget. Measures like increasing guidance value by 30% and doubling electricity charges were implemented to fund these initiatives , indicating a direct impact on the state’s fiscal strategy. Congress Promised 6 schemes in Telangana are going to cost Telangana government around Rs. 53196 Cr. Himachal Pradesh government is creaking under similar pressure and recently HP CM was seen crying in the Assembly where he said HP government doesn’t have enough money to pay the salary of the government employees.

Most of the political parties in J&K are not highlighting the dangers of freebies and challenges faced by other congress governments. If we don’t want J&K to go bankrupt like Himachal Pradesh voters need to see the dangers of such doll outs to buy votes. In long run it will destroy JK UT especially when this UT has very small sources of income and huge expenditures. Many departments like Power Development department , various corporations etc. are already running in losses and all these political parties who are luring voters using freebies must be shown the doors if government employees want to get salary in timely manner.

Politics of Polarization

Article 370 has polarized the elections with only people supporting the abrogation of article 370 going to vote for BJP and others who support bringing back Article 370 , Special Status, or Autonomy to vote for NC, Congress, PDP, PC, Apni Party Jammat, Awami Party etc. JK UT elections are similar to the Parliamentary elections where it was one vs all. INDI Alliance is the alliance of all the political parties and they are fighting to defeat BJP.

Sajjad Kitchloo has threated Hindus in a viral video that once he win elections will show them their face. When the video went viral he said he was talking about the power project companies but it is quite baffling that a contesting candidate will threaten the companies. Sajjad Kitchloo is allegedly involved in Kishtwar riots where Hindu shops and properties were selectively targeted , looted and put to fire after the loot is taken away by the rioters.

In Muslim dominated Kashmir Valley issues are different than Hindu majority Jammu Province. Article 370 , self-rule and autonomy will be a major issue in Kashmir Valley and Muslim majority constituencies. Hindus in Muslim majority areas will most possibly going to support BJP for security and support for Village Defense Group. Other political parties and administration wanted to dismantle Village Defense Committees and there were issues in how the renumeration was paid to the VDC members. BJP fixed the flaws of the VDC and revived it as VDG and has promised to provide advanced weapons to VDG members. VDG members salary was increased by BJP government.

In Hindu majority areas of Jammu Province major political issue is jobs , protection of local interests and development. Despite all this, BJP cadre is very strong in Jammu which increases their changes of winning again but they will lack numbers to form government unless NC-Congress alliance doesn’t get the majority.

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